India's Soybean Output to Fall 2.11%: Can Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan Offset Maharashtra's Crop Losses?

India's soybean production is expected to decline by 2.11% during the 2026 Kharif season, despite improved harvest prospects in some major producing states. According to the first crop estimate released by the Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA), national output is projected at 107.93 lakh tonnes, compared with 110.26 lakh tonnes in the previous season. Higher production in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan is expected to cushion much of the impact of crop losses in Maharashtra.

Prolonged dry spells and inadequate soil moisture during critical stages of crop growth have affected soybean cultivation in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Telangana. SOPA estimates that crops across a combined 7.02 lakh hectares in these three states were completely lost and could not be harvested. Maharashtra is expected to experience the steepest decline among the major producing states, with soybean output projected to fall 33.2% to 34.88 lakh tonnes.

In contrast, Madhya Pradesh, India's largest soybean-producing state, is expected to record a significant increase in production. Output is projected to reach 57.16 lakh tonnes, representing a 32.2% rise from the previous season. Rajasthan is also expected to perform strongly, with production forecast to increase 48.2% to 9.47 lakh tonnes. These gains are expected to compensate for a substantial portion of Maharashtra's production shortfall.

India's soybean cultivation area increased to 117.73 lakh hectares during the current Kharif season, compared with 112.14 lakh hectares in 2025. However, drought conditions and insufficient soil moisture reduced the area available for harvesting. Soybean is an important oilseed crop that supplies raw material for edible oil production and protein-rich meal used in livestock and poultry feed. The projected production decline could therefore influence agricultural markets, processors and supply chains as the season progresses.